The second work package is structured in two streams and is focused on the integration of weather, climate, and water resources boundary conditions and risks modelling within the outputs developed by the ARISE project.
Following the rationale of the project to create new agricultural value chain structures that create long-term contractual relationships between crop buyers and farmers, as well, short-to-long term risks are analysed in this work package.
Weather risks such as drought, excess rainfall, as well as floods of heat waves are characterized based on historical data of state-of-the-art remote sensing and ground observation. Estimation of longer-term climate risks is carried out by embedding inter-annual climate variability and climate change trend using climate model outputs subject to different IPCC climate change scenarios.
The outputs of the WP2 are in particular used in WP1 in order to assess the resilience and sustainability of different optimum crop production systems subject to evolving climate and water resources risks. As well the availability of water resources availability to agricultural supply chains is carried out. The outputs of water resource availability modelling are used subsequently in order to determine potential cost-effectiveness of risk reduction measures such as irrigation, in current and future climate scenarios.