Demand for food already outpaces supply and will only increase alongside population growth, rising incomes, and thirst for biofuels. Climate change places additional pressures on the ability to produce enough food, feed, and fibre for a growing population.
Extreme weather events such as droughts and floods and erratic rainfall patterns result in lower crop yields, higher and more volatile food prices, exacerbating poverty and malnutrition. Along the supply chain, smallholder farmers to global food retailers and manufacturers are all affected by disruptions to food production, availability, and prices, but smallholders endure the most risks.
Climate change and extreme weather events place additional pressures on the ability to produce enough food for a growing population
Across Africa and South Asia, wheat, maize, sorghum, and millet yields are expected to fall by 8% by 2020. In some African countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could fall as much as by 50% and prices of key food crops could increase by 50% to 120% across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) by as early as 2030. The result? The number of people at risk of hunger is projected to increase by 10-20% by 2040, with 65% of these people living in SSA and the number of malnourished children could increase by as much as 20%, again with the majority in Africa.
Smallholder farmers need to be supported to build resilience to climate change in part by better integration into supply chains and improved strategies for managing farming risks. On way to build resilience for smallholders is optimize the adoption of different risk management methods through both adoption of technology and sharing of risks with other. Supply chain stakeholders. The alignment of incentives to invest at farm-level ultimately needs to overcome several barriers ranging from risk aversions, scalability, and poor regulatory frameworks.
The ARISE project is overcoming these challenges by exploring the use of farm-to-regional or country-level metrics allowing to optimally design and increase investments at farm-level. The design of new contractual agreements and financial instruments allowing farmers and supply chain stakeholders to share risk more efficiently is one of the innovations addressed by by the project. The generation of simple and communicable metrics allowing transparent and mutually beneficial decision making across the value chain underpins the latter. The ARISE project seeks to enable both private and public decision makers to design local-to-regional interventions that allow to sustainably increase agricultural production while reducing its exposure to rising climate risk. Ultimately, more sustainable food production and improved market access, as well as higher incomes for smallholder farmers, are achieved, in addition to reducing exposure to climate and weather risks across all value chain stakeholders.